Elizabeth Warren Is Now The Frontrunner In A Key State — Here’s What It Means For 2020

Sen. Elizabeth Warren is Iowa Democrats’ top pick for president.

That’s according to a poll released this weekend by The Des Moines Register and CNN. Warren leads in the Register’s poll for the first time, besting former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Warren polled at 22% among likely Democratic caucusgoers in the state. That’s a two-point lead over, and statistical tie with, Biden, who is widely considered the frontrunner in the race. 

Her polling is significantly higher than Sanders’ 11%. The Register reports the difference is likely due to Warren’s consistently growing popularity. The poll revealed she is the best-liked candidate in the field, with 75% of likely Iowa caucusgoers viewing her “favorably,” and some of Sanders’ initial supporters have moved to Warren over the last several months. 

None of the remaining candidates have reached double digits, The Register reports.

As the first state to vote in the primaries, Iowa often sets the tone and has an outsized impact on the process — campaign momentum, media attention, and donor support often hinge on the results of the Iowa caucuses. 

While it’s imprudent to hang expectations on the results of a single poll, The Register’s findings indicate that Warren holds significant potential among voters, especially those undecided. Of the 602 Iowans surveyed, just one in five said they had already made up their minds — and 71% said they were considering Warren in some capacity, more than any other candidate. 

Warren has been generating excitement among key demographics, including young people and women. The Register poll shows Warren leading the pack among young voters. Many young voters find her candidacy — with her detailed plans for issues such as canceling student loan debt, enacting universal childcare, eradicating the racial and gender wage gap, and reducing gun violence — refreshingly practical. Similarly, Warren counts women as 50% of her donor base, compared to Biden’s 40.2% and Sanders’ 38.1%.

The Iowa Democratic caucuses will take place in February 2020. Until then, Warren — and any other candidate — has plenty of time and opportunity to grow a base of supporters. While 22% of those polled said Warren is their first pick for the presidency, 20% said she is their second choice, per The Register. Twenty-nine percent said they are “actively considering her.”