Are We All Secretly Failing At The Winter Arc?

You’ve likely heard of the “winter arc” but if you haven’t, let me fill you in because you’re already late. Since the beginning of October, you should have been working out most days of the week, trying out a new nutritional plan, picking up a new hobby, journalling daily and cutting off booty calls (among a long list of other things). It isn’t clear who exactly coined the term but this winter it’s all over gym TikTok and general fitness culture. The hashtag #winterarc has almost 500,000 posts on the app and it’s full of people filming themselves at the gym. Lots of the videos channel an aggressive energy as people undergo their “arc” or transformation. The videos portray the winter arc as a period to “lock in” at the gym and put physical and mental progress above all else. It’s about using winter to make rapid progress on fitness and wellness goals before New Year’s resolutions are set because by then, you’re already in the swing of it (and less likely to fail and abandon your resolutions). You might choose to see it as getting ahead. But you might also fail at it. 

On the surface, the winter arc is a fitness trend that’s designed to make your life healthier, though it requires plenty of work and resilience — otherwise, it may leave you feeling worse if you can’t meet its strict demands. If you’ve been doing it and going hard on all your new goals for the last month, how is it treating you? To keep it up for the entirety of winter (and beyond, because there is no real end date to this radical approach to wellness) seems unsustainable and unrealistic for most people. But that’s okay, because the severity of the winter arc is setting you up to fail. And becoming accepting of that fact makes the winter arc more achievable.

For all the good the winter arc can do, no one is really talking about human error. What happens if you’re doing the arc but have a week of getting ill, skipping the gym, ordering takeout and texting that person you know you shouldn’t? To be consistent week in, week out isn’t how real life works. Dr Tara Quinn-Cirillo, a psychologist and author of Mental Health Microgains, says that while goals can be useful in everyday life, there’s balance to be had. “Creating new habits and goals can be a good thing if done in the right way. There might be things we want to change, learn or improve, but goal setting can also negatively impact us if we don’t attain them. It comes down to the relationship we have with our goals.” Too many goals or unrealistic goals can actually worsen our mood and anxiety levels, she adds. It sounds admirable, but building habits and breaking down old ones takes time. The kicker is that if you’re doing the winter arc, time is one thing you don't have. You’re expected to adapt immediately. It sounds as harsh as the winter is cold. Worst of all, you have to do it at the most miserable time of the year. Dr Quinn-Cirillo wants people to remember that at this time of year, light levels change, which can impact our mood, sleep quality, motivation and activity levels. This is an important background to our general way of being. “If wellbeing or life goals become a chore, it defeats the point of setting them.” 

This health trend might end up being unhealthy for some people. Dr Quinn-Cirillo warns that “anything that is too intense or restrictive can be bad for us in so many ways, impacting other things like mood and our quality of sleep”. She’s also concerned that much of the restriction the winter arc encourages isn’t necessary — especially for people who haven’t consulted a doctor. “We can easily get tunnel vision on smaller things, such as not achieving a goal on a certain day,” she adds. To have a healthy relationship with the winter arc, she encourages “widening” your view on your health and fitness, which will help improve self-compassion on the days when goals aren’t met. The winter arc doesn’t mention when to rest, for example, but rest is vital while building muscle and recovering. Some people embrace “hibernating” over the winter period, which is a totally valid way to spend the season, too (and why not try a balance of both?). 

There are some useful points to take from the winter arc, even if you’re not doing it. Going to the gym or for a long walk requires motivation at the best of times, and channelling that motivation can be great for us. Steffi Alexander, F45 global athlete and coach, says the winter arc can help us create a sense of purpose with our goals. “Often people dive into these trends with everything they have,” Alexander says. “Maximum effort to get maximum gains. However, it’s important to set holistic and sustainable goals over time to prevent injury and burnout. The focus should be on finding the balance between the demands of your everyday life and that of your long-term goals. Ideally you should progress slowly yet steadily. If the focus is on gradual improvement rather than a quick fix, you will make your routines more effective.” Self-improvement doesn’t need to be so punishing. 

Alexander ultimately is a fan of the winter arc. It can work. “The trend helps you set a solid foundation and follows what we advocate in the fitness community,” she explains. “The mantra of consistency, small steps and commitment. It is less about the fast fix and really is all about intentional progress and aligns with the principles of holistic wellness.” Lucie Cowan, master cycle trainer at Third Space, is a fan, too. But she’s big on self-compassion as the habits begin to build. “Progress isn’t always linear, and setbacks are part of the process,” she says. “Rather than viewing a missed day as failure, consider each day an opportunity to start fresh. Reflect on what led to the setback — maybe your goals were too ambitious to start with, didn’t suit your lifestyle or needed adjusting. Start small if necessary, with achievable steps that build momentum. Finally, celebrate small wins to stay motivated and reinforce your progress.” When motivation is low, Alexander recommends coming back to your “why” after ironing out the kinks as Cowan suggests. If you started the winter arc with the best intentions but are finding it doesn’t quite work for you, there’s no need to get disheartened. It might be time to come back to your “why” and try a gentler version of the winter arc.

This three-month plan from Alexander gradually increases in intensity. You should adapt it to suit your lifestyle and goals as it won’t work for everyone. While many people have been turning to ChatGPT to help them come up with a winter arc routine, AI can’t replace a doctor or PT and shouldn’t be taken at face value. Any generalised plan should be fine-tuned for you as an individual.

Cowan also recommends starting slow, even if it’s a 20-minute walk three times a week, as well as introducing a digital detox. As the winter arc isn’t just about fitness, rather overall wellbeing, she says it’s worth adding a goal of reducing social media time to an hour a day, perhaps setting app limits to help. It's crucial to establish a consistent sleep schedule too, aiming for seven to eight hours per night to help gym recovery and support mental health.

Month one: Establish a baseline. Three moderate workouts per week (weight training, HIIT or yoga), one new healthy eating habit, and five to 10 minutes of daily mindfulness. 

Month two: Increase frequency with four workouts (remember to include strength training), advance prepping of at least one of your meals daily, making sure to stay hydrated, and adding in an evening reflection (whether it’s through journalling or practising mindfulness). 

Month three: Up to five workouts (which can include going for a walk or hike), making two prepped meals daily, and finding social connection in the community (such as a run club).